Redondo Beach Real Estate Market Update October 2018: Sound the Alarms!

NORTH REDONDO BEACH YEAR OVER YEAR SALES DECLINE 50% 


I had to refresh my browser twice because I couldn't believe it when a search showed that there were only 23 sales in North Redondo Beach during September and 24 in South Redondo Beach. Wow. I was hoping to see 47 in just 90278 and can't remember the last time there were more sales in 90277 than in North Redondo.

How bad is this? To start with, bad. Really bad.

During the same time period last year, there were 53 sales during September in North Redondo and 41 in South Redondo. So a major drop.

Looking at North Redondo in 2016 there were 37 September sales, 42 in 2015 and 40 in 2014.

Year to date during 2018 there have been 337 closed escrows in 90278 compared to 410 in 2017, 364 in 2016 and 411 in 2015.

Historical Sales by Month




So what's going on?

Simply put, we have hit an inflection point where home shoppers are simply saying "no" to increased price points and homes in less than desirable condition. Buyers simply don't want to pay top dollar for homes that then need extensive updates, repairs and upgrades. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

Here's why.

The Real Estate market has been out of balance for quite a while now and has been heavily favorable to Sellers pushing up prices. The end result of that - a glimmer of which we just saw, is that Buyers say no and move on to a different neighborhood or price point. Or just remain renters. Not good.

After the market top is reached, which may have happened earlier this year (no one rings a bell), more Sellers list their homes for sale. And we are seeing that with 49 current active listings and higher inventory levels over the past few weeks. When inventory hits a tipping point, Sellers will start to cut prices. That's where we are now.

So let's take a deeper dive into September North Redondo Beach sales.

MEDIANS, DAYS ON MARKET AND THE "OVER  UNDER"



The median price for September was $995,000 which is a decline from $1,015,000 the prior month.

The median days on market was 13 days with 19 of the 23 sales being in escrow in less than 30 days.

Fourteen homes sold for over the asking price, 4 at the asking price and 5 under the asking price.

What we are seeing is that desirable homes that are priced right are selling in under 30 days for the asking price or higher. Potential Sellers, best to let the trend be your friend.

Original List Price Compared to Sales Price



WHAT'S SELLING AND WHERE?


There were 6 Single Family Residences sold with the balances of the closed escrows being Townhomes and Condos.

With all the new construction you may see going up around town, only one sale was a 2018 build. That was 2415 Rockefeller Ln Unit C which is a 3 on a lot that went for $1,270,000 which may be  record for an attached 3 on a lot.

For me that wasn't the only eye popping 3 on a lot sale. 2111 Carnegie Ln Unit C was listed for $950,000 and went for $997,712 which may also be a record for a 2005 built 3 / 2.5 at 1760 Sq Ft.

For the fans of price per Sq Ft, riddle me this. The 2005 resale went for $567 Sq Ft while the new construction went for $554 Sq Ft.

The distribution of sales looked like this on the map:


So you don't have to count the red markers, there were 10 sales North of Artesia Blvd in Area 151, 9 in Area 152 South of Artesia, 1 in El Nido - Area 153 and 3 in Golden Hills.

A theme which I think you will see me revisit in the coming months is that there seems to be certain price points that Buyers won't go beyond for specific property types. For example, most resale Tall & Skinny SFRs seem to be in the $1.2M to $1.25M range if they are in great shape and better locations (not adjacent to any of the busy cross streets). Now that doesn't mean that newer, larger units won't go for more. I'm referring to the standard 3 / 2.5 1880 Sq Ft homes.

Anything that needs updates, repairs, has deferred maintenance will sell at a discount to those prices.

IS THERE A SILVER LINING?

So what's the good news here? Well to start with there are currently 49 homes under contract in 90278 so we most likely will see much better results this month than last month.

But the bigger picture is that we were on an unsustainable path. Every new listing could not sell for a higher price than the last one.  That trajectory would ultimately hurt home owners over the long term as Buyers would move on to other more affordable neighborhoods.